Countdown to Division 9 season-end

Winter League

I have been looking at some of the latest League tables for teams in the Winter League. As teams near the end of the season, those involved in promotion and relegation issues tend to look more closely at their opponents and start adding up the chances of finishing above the dreaded relegation/promotion line.

I believe that there are four of the 10 Divisions in the League where it is near enough to the end of the season to start this countdown process. They are in Divisions 3, 7, 8 and 9 where they have all played 10 matches up to date, leaving only four fixtures each still to be played.

Starting at the back and working upwards with today's focus being on the teams in Division 9. Seven of the eight teams are new to the Winter League playing their first seasons in the League. One team, Kirkheaton C&BC B, finished at the bottom of Division 8 last season and so joined Division 9 this term.

Looking at the bottom of the table and the outcome looks to be pretty well decided (famous last words of course) with Almondbury BC C and Brockholes C looking nailed on to be competing in Division 10 next season. They are at least 15 points off safety with 4 matches to play. Both teams have to play their closest rivals, Mirfield C, in their final four fixtures so offering some hope of an escape route. Both teams have only won once this season and that has been against each other. I am maybe being a little ruthless but cannot see things changing sufficiently to justify digging deep into the depths of statistical analysis on such slender pickings.

So for the purpose of this exercise I am looking at the fight for the two promotion places with, I am being generous here, five teams still in the frame but bear with me for now. Let us look at the remaining fixtures for each of the top five teams. The colour coding highlights each team's matches against the top three challengers (RED), The mid-table pair (ORANGE) and the bottom trio (GREEN). This is how it pans out for each of the five teams.

The colour coding quickly shows that the top three teams (all in red) at present, all have to play each other in their final 4 fixtures. It also shows that the two outsiders (shown in orange) have the least challenging set of remaining fixtures as both Kirkheaton C&BC B and Marsh Lib B have only to play one each of the top three teams. Suddenly the inclusion of both teams in this analysis doesn't look so stupid.

Then look more closely at Kirkheaton C&BC C who have the bottom two teams still to play which is a programme that cannot be matched by the other two top three teams. You cannot rule out Marsh Lib B, who, despite sitting in 4th place in the table, have only lost two matches all season, a record that is only bettered by the leaders. My clubmates from Kirkheaton Con C have flirted with the top of the table position on two occasions this season but have faltered when playing top two opposition. With two of their remaining fixtures against the top two teams makes it a big ask of them but I know that they wont give up without a good showing.

Forecast: The countdown table points to Kirkheaton C&BC C having the easiest run-in of fixtures of the top three teams and being only two points behind the leaders suggests that they are poised to make a serious bid for the title and, in my eyes, are odds-on for promotion and they get my vote to top the table as well. The current leaders, Greenfield Park, look to me as the team to claim the second promotion place but what do I know?

Coming up next: Countdown to the end of the Division 8 season.